Thinking about thinking and deciding in a complex, uncertain, and risky world.
This is the second article I've read recently about Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis. The implications are staggering.
posted by Robert D. Brown III @ 1/24/2011 12:04:00 AM
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“A decision was wise, even though it lead to disastrous consequences, if the evidence at hand indicated that it was the best one to make; and a decision was foolish, even though it lead to the happiest possible consequences, if it was unreasonable to expect those consequences."
-Herodotus, ca. 500 BC."Apathy adores simplicity; compassion confronts complexity. When people don’t care, others suffer."
I am a senior decision support advisor who provides guidance, deep insights, and valuable solutions for senior decision-makers facing complex, high-risk problems related to strategic planning, risk management, project valuation & planning, and project portfolio analysis & management. My goal is to help people ensure that the decisions they make are well framed (focused on the right problem and clearly defined) and that they understand the implications of uncertainty and risk on the likelihood of achieving their goals.
Note that only the last 10 posts are listed here. More tasty bits are actually here than meets the eye.
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