tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-210530152011-12-14T22:11:03.740-05:00Thinking about thinking and deciding in a complex, uncertain, and risky world.Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.comBlogger821100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-80255204755913292712011-08-14T00:59:00.002-04:002011-08-14T01:02:50.068-04:00

I've been concerned lately about the state of business intelligence (BI) systems I've seen implemented in the wilds of business. Currently, BI systems are essentially accounting and reporting systems, oftentimes accompanied with very sophisticated data visualization. That is, they show current and past states of collected information. From this information, trends, correlations, and anomalies

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-46159346373721696082011-08-13T12:37:00.002-04:002011-11-06T16:32:35.837-05:00

I'm just thinking "out loud" here...about thinking. Intelligence is a kind of measurement of the quality of problem solving. Agents are systems that have at least one preferred state. A simple agent possesses one to many preferred states, but they aren’t connected. Complicated agents have at least two preferred states, and the achievement of one increases the likelihood of achieving the other

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-82475248862682679612011-07-07T02:07:00.002-04:002011-07-07T02:50:59.355-04:00

Consider this: We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Three days ago I reaffirmed my belief in the

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-53630133967239468802011-03-08T11:17:00.000-05:002011-03-08T11:17:39.481-05:00

Inc. Online published an article on Feb 24, 2011 entitled "Tactics Are the New Strategy" and opened the article with the following: "Strategic management can be a huge time drain for managers. Why not just ditch the conventional wisdom and go with your intuition in order to innovate once in a while?" It sounds fun and certainly less constraining than the pathology the article describes, but we

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-61146605437941088622011-01-24T00:04:00.001-05:002011-01-25T09:16:38.544-05:00

This is the second article I've read recently about Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis. The implications are staggering. The Atlantic published an earlier article about Ioannidis: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science". Now, if medical research can go so wrong, how likely is it that business research suffers from many of the same failures?

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-85139867187035979122011-01-18T17:23:00.001-05:002011-01-18T17:25:00.877-05:00

The Foundation for Economic Freedom (FEE) has been linked on this blog for several years now. It provides a great set of resources for students of economic thought and liberty. I just found out today that FEE has opened an office in Atlanta, GA, and that President Lawrence Reed will be hosting a talk in my hometown of Newnan, GA on February 15. You can obtain more details here. I am really

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-25061918709580300612011-01-12T15:48:00.000-05:002011-01-12T15:48:19.526-05:00

Or Tauism - seeking the way of tau by Michael Hart Just for fun on a cold winter's afternoon.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-40495229830685156472011-01-11T21:20:00.005-05:002011-01-12T15:23:19.520-05:00

McKinsey offers some useful tests to determine the quality of a corporate strategy. But do you know HOW to create a strategy that passes the tests? Here are four of the ten tests. They aren't necessarily the most important, but the issues they address crop up in EVERY client I serve. My suspicion, then, is that those same issues crop up in every organization. Test 5: Does your strategy rest on

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-64060987762454893472010-10-05T14:16:00.000-04:002010-10-05T14:16:00.152-04:00

I'm not sure what to make of this.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-82051559874625141212010-09-29T00:01:00.004-04:002010-09-29T00:13:38.998-04:00

Georgia's new "No Texting While Driving" law went into effect on Friday, July 2, 2010. I know of no one who questions that texting while driving - indeed doing anything that distracts a driver - is smart behavior. However, mobile phones with multiple functions represent a deeply embedded part of our culture now, supplying quick communication and information in situations where we find ourselves

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-47590207751713538782010-09-28T22:38:00.050-04:002010-09-28T23:02:18.320-04:00

If you have attended a motivational speech recently, you likely have heard this story: There was an interesting experiment that started with five monkeys in a cage. A banana hung inside the cage with a set of steps placed underneath it. After a while, a monkey went to the steps and started to climb towards the banana, but when he touched the steps, he set off a spray that soaked all the other

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-37570305172537611332010-09-10T17:04:00.006-04:002010-09-10T17:11:39.268-04:00

"Knowledge of the future automatically alters our actions. These, in turn, alter the future. Are attempts to predict the future futile?"I would not strictly say so, but you have to modify what you mean by "predict". Before the Modern Era, people believed that the state of the universe was determined by fate (pre-Enlightenment) or strict deterministic mechanics (Enlightenment). For the most part

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-23309502582841384132010-09-01T21:23:00.001-04:002010-09-02T14:30:30.867-04:00

An acquaintance recently asked me the following: "Can you quantify how risk management actually makes a difference? I'm tired of struggling with this issue. Any ideas?"Indeed, I do have some. I take a slightly different approach to risk management than is commonly associated with the term and common practices. Risk management to me is really decision analysis and management. Of the several

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-17692806149415186042010-09-01T14:46:00.001-04:002010-09-01T14:58:21.001-04:00

"I have a friend in the mortgage industry who shared the following sentiment with me about refinancing:Do not try to use common sense to understand this process, there is none of that in our industry at the moment. The mantra in our industry is “rules over risk” which means that they are not concerned whether your loan represents a risk or not, it is all about whether we are able to meet the

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-86543911823563042652010-08-16T13:31:00.002-04:002010-10-17T22:30:48.264-04:00

The other day I was feeling up to a brisk ride through the countryside. I wanted to feel the wind in my hair, experience the open road and open sky, and savor the thrill of facing death head on. The original Son of Anarchy, about to my mount my Daimler crotch rocket. Thinking that I would also enjoy sharing the adventure with a friend, I asked adventurer extraordinaire, George P. Burdell, to

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-53882835841338718982010-08-10T19:57:00.002-04:002010-08-10T20:02:23.090-04:00

This is another interesting article on the difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics.I posted a link back in March to another related article in ScienceNews: "Odds Are, It's Wrong".

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-56864402842416030382010-08-10T01:20:00.001-04:002010-08-10T01:21:56.478-04:00

Whenever I conduct a business case analysis with a client, the model's assumptions are always treated as uncertainties until indicated otherwise. A typical analysis can incorporate anywhere from 10 to 50 such assumptions. The analysis rank orders the most important assumptions by how sensitive the decision metric (e.g, net present value, positive cash flow, sustainable levels of resources, etc.)

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-21782232851632215042010-07-20T17:34:00.001-04:002010-07-20T17:35:47.957-04:00

Something’s wrong, but you’ll never know what it is. Yep. We're doomed.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-58075107183404390382010-07-20T17:31:00.000-04:002010-07-20T17:32:30.256-04:00

We're doomed.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-56462426103964882852010-06-10T19:45:00.003-04:002010-06-10T19:50:52.997-04:00

So says 37Signals.37Signals has a lot of good ideas about software design that I like. In fact, I absolutely love Writeboard and use it often. Unfortunately, their generic statement about planning really only works when the cost of development and other opportunity costs are near zero. Otherwise, when one faces committing expensive capital to the task of generating a return, especially with

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-83035865164144999612010-04-29T21:38:00.001-04:002010-04-29T21:40:02.049-04:00

"Senior officers say the program [PowerPoint] does come in handy when the goal is not imparting information, as in briefings for reporters."Read more here.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-72391317078309435792010-04-24T16:46:00.004-04:002010-04-24T16:59:26.489-04:00

By Robert D. Brown III and Gerald A. BushOn a rainy winter afternoon, the board members of Columbia Jewelry excitedly discussed the results they were hearing about their business. Even in a poor economy, they were pleased with their business’s performance during 2009. Due to quick action to control expenses and a decision taken earlier in the year to delay store expansion plans, profits grew by

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-51978912364383539752010-03-26T14:33:00.002-04:002010-03-26T14:35:12.858-04:00

If you happen to be in town:Date: Tuesday, March 30th (rescheduled from February 15th)Time: 8:30 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.Cost: FREE for all attendees Location: Georgia Tech Enterprise Innovation Institute 3rd Floor, Wayne Hodges Room - Centergy Building 75 Fifth St - Atlanta, GA 30308Registration details are here.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-49878452553085037182010-03-20T09:51:00.004-04:002010-03-20T09:55:11.996-04:00

During the past century...a mutant form of math has deflected science’s heart from the modes of calculation that had long served so faithfully. To find out more about this mutant, read more here.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-14073215736584073052010-01-30T17:27:00.012-05:002010-07-28T18:22:04.908-04:00

A Hayek vs. Keynes Rap AnthemIf you want to sing along, here are the lyrics:We’ve been going back and forth for a century[Keynes] I want to steer markets,[Hayek] I want them set freeThere’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it[Hayek] Blame low interest rates.[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits[Keynes Sings:]John Maynard Keynes, wrote the book on modern macroThe man you need when the

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-89819068238451560192009-12-28T20:09:00.003-05:002010-01-02T13:11:34.892-05:00

WHAT BUSINESS MODEL WILL PREVAIL?- by Gerald A. Bush, Ph.D. and Robert D. BrownUNDERSTANDING THE MOVES OF LAW FIRMS AND CORPORATE COUNSELSeeing what will happen in the future can be incredibly valuable. Is there a reliable way to look at the legal services market and predict the future business model? Better yet, by knowing what model is likely to emerge from the ideas being discussed today, are

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-76471612739345777082009-11-22T23:42:00.001-05:002009-11-22T23:43:22.641-05:00

The Valuable Paradox of UncertaintyView more documents from robertdbrowniii.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-12650010519943504812009-10-07T21:27:00.003-04:002009-10-07T21:32:48.556-04:00

Listen to this presentation by Daniel Pink. The first 10 people to complete this task will get twice as much as I paid you last year.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-48366705334052312182009-09-16T14:05:00.004-04:002009-09-16T14:08:10.003-04:00

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-10487841321891765072009-09-12T16:52:00.005-04:002009-09-16T14:09:41.338-04:00

Everyone in your company who makes decisions or supports decision-making needs to read by Sam Savage. Why? Because together you are likely committing the flaw of averages, wasting time and exposing yourself to unnecessary risk. Savage shows you how to avoid this pitfall in a cleverly written, enlightening, and fun to read guide to making better decisions. Most likely you have never heard of

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-89474101584112765332009-08-07T18:52:00.002-04:002009-08-07T18:55:26.441-04:00

This explains what happens to the money in my wallet. Well, that's my story.Where would we be if they had opposable thumbs?

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-4298822523790142602009-08-05T21:13:00.000-04:002009-08-05T21:14:50.386-04:00

Great article in the Wall Street Journal today: Weighty Choices, in Patients’ Hands.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-10346505673448243252009-07-22T13:23:00.005-04:002009-12-28T20:21:14.883-05:00

Read this story here.Did you see the same pattern the author did? George P. Burdell, a man known for making significant patterns, didn't either. You are wise, too.What you are witnessing in that article is a nationally distributed example of selection and confirmation bias, a fool's errand - looking for something that really is not there.If you remove the outlier in each graph, the graphs

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-56584039762418698012009-07-22T13:13:00.006-04:002010-02-15T15:27:31.255-05:00

I conducted a simple analysis about a week ago based on numbers published at Recovery.Gov. The site actually tells you how the Obama administration developed their forecast. (Editor's note: the links are apparently no longer available.) Essentially, they describe what amounts to a linear distribution based on the population of the states. I wanted to see if they were telling the truth and if

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-70320346540947457362009-06-09T14:10:00.003-04:002009-06-09T14:13:41.834-04:00

No one can ever eliminate mistakes or undesirable outcomes from the choices they make. But you can gain the skills necessary to help you and your colleagues consistently reduce the likelihood of being wrong with important decisions. "Overcoming Barriers to Effective Decision-making", reveals why decision-making in a business context is so difficult and what can be done about it, especially when

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-27417602486932740742009-05-21T00:03:00.005-04:002009-05-21T00:12:18.471-04:00

My friend Lucio just launched what I think is going to be among the next most important applications of social media - nxwrld.com.nxwrld.com is a unique community networking website where people share world views and creative ideas for actionable change. It focuses on the key social, economic and political issues that form the fabric of people's lives, our communities and beyond. nxwrld.com users

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-91883322262250255322009-04-28T22:29:00.002-04:002009-04-28T22:30:59.786-04:00

I wonder if the same robots will discover metamath?

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-67792220037743262952009-04-08T09:55:00.001-04:002009-04-08T09:56:35.579-04:00

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-86110532498788794072009-04-06T20:22:00.004-04:002009-04-06T20:37:06.805-04:00

Nassim Taleb provides some very interesting interviews with Russ Roberts. I'm still thinking through what he said. Some ideas I agree with. Some I disagree with. Others I'm surprised by.#1 Taleb on Black Swans#2 Taleb on the Financial Crisis

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-82395025478435132982009-03-21T15:15:00.004-04:002009-03-21T15:21:54.938-04:00

Friend and fellow blogger, Rick at Economics for One, wrote this note on the taxing effects of inflation.I note the following: The other interesting, if not chilling, effect of inflation is that inflation induces greater and greater dependence on government services and employment, which Rick alluded to by explaining the dilution of money as a function of distance from the government. Since

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-28612277761461128962008-06-16T18:08:00.006-04:002008-06-16T18:55:36.748-04:00

If you took your Father's Day to go trout fishing in the Chattahoochee River, and if you caught anything that you considered worth keeping and that won't make your toenails fall out once you have eaten it, you may have acquired a copy of the Sunday, June 15, 2008 edition of the Atlanta Journal Constitution to prepare your catch for the freezer. And if you paused long enough in the @issue section

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-32505362886455770382008-06-13T16:01:00.008-04:002008-06-14T21:31:02.554-04:00

I noticed something funny in one of the latest issues (May 26, 2008) of Fortune magazine. It's an ad placed by the Air Force. I haven't seen it in other periodicals yet, but maybe I haven't been attentive enough. The ad begins on page 39. It shows a picture of some unseemly third world dictator waving his gun along with his entourage of other gun toters (by the way, I'm a gun toter, too, so

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-90705251473303347292008-06-12T19:28:00.003-04:002008-06-12T19:34:07.791-04:00

My review of the modeling application Analytica 4.1 was published in INFORMS's periodical, "ORMS Today", today.I don't think it will get the Pulitzer, but it might cure insomnia.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-63762344218595765372008-06-12T19:24:00.011-04:002008-06-12T19:39:36.780-04:00

Click on the image and see the lower left corner if you don't get what I mean in the title.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-58801090811243134722008-05-15T11:14:00.002-04:002008-05-15T11:18:01.555-04:00

This is what I've been saying! Just avoid the voucher system. We need as little government intrusion in this as possible.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-87022689499052659442008-04-10T01:49:00.007-04:002008-06-12T19:36:54.089-04:00

On Saturday, April 5, 2008, I decided to drive north from Bakersfield, CA to visit Sequoia National Park. It was one of the best sightseeing trips I have ever made.I took this photo while driving up to see the Sherman sequoia, the biggest tree in the world. I probably should have put my car in park as I took the photo.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-77375577835010898042008-03-28T14:53:00.039-04:002008-04-10T02:06:14.311-04:00

On the 1000th day of its life, Bertrand Russell's turkey felt fat and happy. The next day, Thanksgiving, he was stuffed with bread and eaten to the great satisfaction of the Russell family. Russell's turkey met a black swan.[1]A black swan was an idea put forward by the Enlightenment philosopher, David Hume, to represent the unexpected, the stuff you know you don't know or don’t know that you

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-605104054568387032008-03-26T13:58:00.022-04:002008-03-29T12:49:50.240-04:00

George P. Burdell recently called my attention to this article, about how John Boyd's theories of maneuver conflict could be employed in the management of a library. "Wow! Who knew the Dewey Decimal System could be so fun," I exclaimed.George P. Burdell (a man known by many for his agility and maneuverability) and I have been reading about and participating in discussions about the ideas of the

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-27271131922585894322008-03-26T11:32:00.011-04:002008-03-26T22:50:08.963-04:00

The theory of evolution has an interesting relationship to the concept of “global warming.” There is very little public policy debate about evolution these days that has the potential to affect all of us the way the debate about global warming does. In fact, regardless of whether the theory of evolution is true or not (I tend to believe it's mostly true, but that's another discussion for

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-62965028795291728872008-03-21T17:37:00.000-04:002008-03-21T17:42:30.641-04:00

Arthur C. Clarke inspired me to dream.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-87616413473161634932008-02-20T22:36:00.010-05:002008-03-28T17:19:57.711-04:00

I just started reading Genius: The Life and Science of Richard Feynman By James Gleick.This is just a fun book. It reminds me so much of when I was kid and didn't yet know that there were "limits" to what I could learn and discover.I think I'm going to have new little wrist bands made that say, "WWFD?" Yep, that's right: "What Would Feynman Do?"

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-58077811567558751542008-02-19T12:17:00.014-05:002008-05-17T10:25:01.790-04:00

Some time ago, a friend of mine suggested that all businesses could be boiled down to 5 types associated with certain illicit activities:drugs - processing raw material into a refined, usable formpornography - content created once and distributed through low margin mediaprostitution - hourly laborpimping - providing access to aggregated valued services or productsreligion - selling promises about

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-76903293768982571392008-02-04T13:47:00.001-05:002008-02-04T14:51:41.556-05:00

There are a lot of books out there that help one attempt to be successful in a number of endeavors. But I think understanding how not to succeed may be as important as understanding how to succeed. Because stupidity sometimes seems to be a contributing factor to failure (although success sometimes seems to occur in spite of it), I propose that we invent a science of stupidity. To that end, I

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-50575299143294499722008-02-04T12:00:00.000-05:002008-02-05T19:57:33.119-05:00

I entered the office today feeling rather blue, after all, rainy days and Mondays always get me down. But today was a little different. I was maybe feeling a tad bit more deflated than is typical for a rainy Monday morning."You look depressed," observed George P. Burdell, a man known for his instinctive awareness. "What's got you down?""Well, I just read a book review of by Malcolm Gladwell,

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-59466280670749719842007-10-10T19:43:00.000-04:002007-10-11T21:37:55.069-04:00

The next door neighbor boy just came over and asked if he could play with the rubber snake on my front walk way. When I looked out the door, I realized that he was referring to a baby copper head. Since I appreciated the boy’s courtesy, I said, “Sure, go ahead. But let me know when you’re done.”If you ever want to catch a copper head, just gently stroke it behind its head. This places the

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-77650157368499487862007-10-08T22:58:00.000-04:002007-10-09T17:08:13.119-04:00

My friend George P. Burdell, a man of profound insight, recently pointed me to Dr. Bissantz's article, "Can we steer banks like cars?", at Bissantz's blog: Me, myself, and BI.After reading the article, I called my friend, George, and exclaimed, "Wow! I didn't even know banks had to obey traffic signals."There was a long pause, and then a sigh.George said, "Here's what I thought was the key take

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-64900341894101340732007-08-09T09:57:00.000-04:002007-08-09T11:11:17.686-04:00

When I mentioned my failing approbation for a school voucher system, my friendly free market pedagogue, George P. Burdell, said, "Have you gone all commie on me? I thought the voucher system was free market?" Unfortunately, I think it still lets Uncle Karl in the back door.Now, lest anyone doubt it, I am all for free market education and an end to the government monopoly of our educational

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-22518957096214572892007-08-02T21:54:00.000-04:002007-08-02T22:03:31.602-04:00

Now this was fascinating: "Subjects who made incorrect decisions under "noisy" conditions tended to have extremely high confidence that their decisions were right. They were far more confident than the subjects dealing with a noncluttered image."Hmmm...so, the "louder" and more confusing it gets, visually speaking, the more machismo shows up at the party.The original article, "Visual Clutter

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-19643164425190879592007-07-16T13:50:00.000-04:002007-07-27T23:14:43.484-04:00

Admittedly, I am borrowing someone else's words here, but this idea captured so succinctly why I am a libertarian: I am just naïve enough to believe that the Constitution of the United States was supposed to guarantee and secure the rights of the individual endowed by the Creator, rather than beat into submission any individual who disagrees with the democratic will of the majority.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-35916426270260779992007-07-14T00:48:00.009-04:002008-03-28T17:43:10.161-04:00

Here’s a short excerpt of my recommended reading list that I frequently suggest to clients and other professionals. Some of the texts don’t necessarily speak directly to day-to-day business, but the applications of them to business are profound in many ways. This list represents some of the most helpful books to my own professional growth as well as the most enjoyable to read. An asterisk

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-40000687164440454112007-07-02T14:22:00.000-04:002007-07-03T23:30:44.266-04:00

I really thought this was an interesting article.One thing that struck me about swarm theory is the lack of management hierarchy as an element of the system. That's probably the point. But why have humans derived management by command-and-control and management hierarchy rather than swarm approaches? Conversely, why doesn't a swarm include such a method? What are the benefits of either? The

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-16199100024143323242007-07-02T12:19:00.000-04:002007-07-11T17:44:29.534-04:00

In preparation for the celebration of Independence Day, in which Americans (should) recall the sacrifices endured to create a homeland free from tyranny, I thought I would share a short meditation by George P. Burdell, visiting Constitutional Law Scholar, on the nature of the Electoral College and how it was designed to guard against political tyranny.I recently overheard a frustrated and

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-53748890841487567532007-06-13T11:27:00.000-04:002007-06-13T11:35:32.425-04:00

Jonah Goldberg gets it quite right.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-59602501694495490302007-05-15T17:04:00.000-04:002007-05-15T17:22:44.362-04:00

The fact of the matter is, this cartoon applies not only to conspiratorialists, but also to anyone who selectively applies data to suport a pet theory, not just young earth creationists, but atheist secularists, anthropogenic global warming-ists, etc.We all have pet theories or mental models about the world in which causation is often ambiguous. I wonder, though -- is the goal for a good thinker

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-48609621454533564512007-03-31T22:40:00.002-04:002009-02-15T18:28:36.972-05:00

The other evening, my friend, George P. Burdell (a man known for his sense of nostalgia), and I were sitting around reminiscing and remiserating our days at Ma Tech. Suddenly, George slapped his knee and whooped.“Do you remember when you got that B in your aerospace design class for turning in a paper airplane? That took Big Kahunas!”George just had to bring this up. I turned away, crestfallen

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-5073633520829883052007-03-19T17:43:00.000-04:002007-03-20T18:12:46.208-04:00

Not long after the birth of our first child, some good friends of ours began home-schooling their oldest school-aged child. Before long, the results were obvious. Their child began to excel at a rate beyond her peers. Some of it was due to here innate abilities, but we just could help but believe how much of it was due to the focused and customized attention her parents were able to focus on

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-28289324790184271112007-03-19T16:18:00.000-04:002007-03-19T21:40:22.297-04:00

My friend, George P. Burdell, a man known for his climatic warmth, suggested that I watch this video:The Great Global Warming Swindle.However, if you still need to alleviate your conscience, you can contribute $100 to my Paypal account, and I will contribute a portion to efforts that will offset your carbon footprint. I'm just that nice.Whatever global warming's cause, If Kiesling's comment in

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-21549675781061026692007-03-19T15:35:00.000-04:002007-03-19T15:42:43.982-04:00

This just says it all: "'I think it's easier to be an anarchist in a good climate,' Kiesling suggests."Wasn't there a famous Greek philosopher who said: "The unexamined life is not worth protesting?"

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-58619987205504106592007-03-14T12:06:00.000-04:002007-05-06T13:48:02.556-04:00

Did you see this article? Why We Banned Legos?This reminds me of another favorite quote:The moment the idea is admitted into society, that property is not as sacred as the laws of God, and that there is not a force of law and public justice to protect it, anarchy and tyranny commence.-President John Adams (1797-1801)Wanting not that anarchy and tyranny should commence, but more importantly

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-64063458853840498302007-03-14T10:26:00.000-04:002007-03-14T10:50:43.345-04:00

Here are some of my favorite quotes about thinking.But politics is not about facts. It is about what politicians can get people to believe.--Thomas Sowell[Editor's note: I love Thomas Sowell. I keep waiting for him to adopt me.]It seemed like such a good idea at the time...I thought it would work. I planned everything down to the last detail...As God is my witness, I thought turkey's could fly.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-33099759936220442782007-03-10T12:13:00.000-05:002007-10-09T16:59:43.375-04:00

Two weeks prior to the submission deadline for the order form, my 8 year old daughter, Madeleine, had not sold ANY Girl Scout Cookies. This was disturbing to me because in the prior two years Madeleine had been among her Brownie troop's top sellers. This year she was off.Madeleine was ecstatic the first year she sold Girl Scout cookies. The night she received her order form, she ran home and

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-50030689922687224532007-03-09T10:36:00.000-05:002007-10-09T17:01:42.972-04:00

Before I get started, I'd like to relate to you that I recently asked my friend, George P. Burdell, a man known for holding deep sympathy for mankind in his bosom, if he would consider breast augmentation mamoplasty. Based on the consequential affect of his face, I'd say this question raised a whole series of questions and images in George's mind. Sheepishly he grinned. "Well, yes. I

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-71996266952077166312007-03-08T17:43:00.000-05:002007-03-09T11:28:45.920-05:00

This reminded me of my earlier post about being a fixed resource. It looks like I'm a needle in my own haystack. Talk about the need to differentiate!HowManyOfMe.comThere are:29,348people with my namein the U.S.A.How many have your name?

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-46836471434024985812007-02-21T11:00:00.004-05:002008-03-26T17:15:47.470-04:00

John Stossel nails it.Someone has said that CRAZY is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result.I suggest that STUPID is the government school system doing the same thing over and over again knowing that it's NOT going to get a different result.No, wait.  That would be CORRUPT.

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-1157824701378517202006-09-09T13:58:00.000-04:002007-03-20T18:19:30.544-04:00

[Editor's note: I first published this article in my newsletter "As Chance Would Have It" back in 2000. Leafing through old correspondence the other day, I rediscovered it, enjoyed it a second time, and thought I would share it with you here. I may have a few other gems to republish.]**I first learned of Michael Schrage's work from a recent email from Harvard Busines School Press pointing to an

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-1157753264412419912006-09-08T18:07:00.000-04:002007-03-09T12:33:25.943-05:00

I want to pass an idea by you for your consideration. You might be surprised by it. In fact, you might be a little shocked. But here goes: I'm not so sure the ad hominem argument is such a bad thing. I know what you're thinking...ad hominem...yessiree...you're not really into that kind of stuff.Maybe I should explain a little more. Let's recall what Mrs. Jones taught us in our third grade

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-1141360916546707522006-03-02T23:21:00.000-05:002006-03-02T23:45:43.810-05:00

(This article was republished by permission from the author. It was first published July 12, 1996. That seems so long ago now.)ABOUT HALF OF BUSINESS DECISIONS END IN FAILURE, STUDY FINDSCOLUMBUS, Ohio -- Managers fail about half the time when they make business decisions involving their organization, a new study suggests.About one-third of real-life business decisions studied by an Ohio State

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-1141359081315029192006-03-02T23:11:00.000-05:002007-04-03T17:09:50.717-04:00

Not too long ago, my son, Forrest, with a devious grin on his face, posed a challenge: "Dad, if you're so smart, what is one million plus one million?"I, Laius, faced my deposer. "Well, son, one million plus one million is two million."With eyes as large as saucers, my son responded, "Wow! You are good."There are at least a couple of lessons here for all of us to learn.A little bit of knowledge

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-1141342237117053262006-03-02T18:30:00.001-05:002009-05-04T23:01:55.253-04:00

After reading the following article, "Eureka! Scientists Break Speed of Light," I recalled a limerick I learned as a child:There once was a girl named Bright/ Whose speed was much faster than light./ She set out one day/ In a relative way/And returned on the previous night.Then I felt a wave of nausea that usually accompanies an intense feeling of cognitive dissonance. My sense of reality became

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-1141341029894806952006-03-02T18:10:00.000-05:002007-03-19T12:53:48.317-04:00

A friend of mine recently sought some advice from me on seeking employment. He had been out of work for a while, and desperation was running high. When I asked him what he wanted to do, he replied that he would do anything.I called my friend, George P. Burdell, a man known for knowing specifically what to do, and related my friend's situation and generic disposition. After thinking for a while

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-1137634555123520762006-01-18T20:35:00.000-05:002007-10-09T17:03:26.056-04:00

Have you seen this article: The 11-Year Quest to Create Disappearing Colored Bubbles?I'll wait a while for you to read it. Would you like a cup of tea?It really is an amazing story of determination and ingenuity. Tim Kehoe wanted colored bubbles, not an easy technical task. Ultimately, Ram Sabnis, a dye chemist, gave him colored bubbles. All it required of Sabnis, of course, was for him to

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21053015.post-1137441544076582152006-01-16T14:59:00.000-05:002007-10-09T17:05:36.188-04:00

While Thales is regarded as one of the first natural philosophers of the Greek persuasion, scant little is known or written about him. However, there is a fascinating event associated with him that was recorded by Aristotle in his Politics (1259a).Who knows if this really is the bust of Thales. There are no remaining photographs with which to compare it. However, as marble busts of pensive

Robert D. Brown IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.com0