I thought this TED talk by Margaret Heffernan was great and complementary to the blog post I wrote: Ain't I Got a Right to be Wrong?
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About Me
- Robert D. Brown III
- Atlanta, Georgia, United States
- I am a senior decision support advisor who provides guidance, deep insights, and valuable solutions for senior decision-makers facing complex, high-risk problems related to strategic planning, risk management, project valuation & planning, and project portfolio analysis & management. My goal is to help people ensure that the decisions they make are well framed (focused on the right problem and clearly defined) and that they understand the implications of uncertainty and risk on the likelihood of achieving their goals.
Recommended Reading
A curated list of the best books available on decision & risk analysis.
Ask, Inspire, Solve.: The Science and Practice of Facilitative Questioning
by Katherine Rosback
Bayesian Methods for Hackers: Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Inference
by Cameron Davidson-Pilon
Business Case Analysis with R: Simulation Tutorials to Support Complex Business Decisions
by Robert D. Brown III
Business Portfolio Management: Valuation, Risk Assessment, and EVA Strategies
by Michael S. Allen
Certain to Win: The Strategy of John Boyd, Applied to Business
by Chet Richards
Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors
by Michael E. Porter
Data Analysis: A Bayesian Tutorial
by Devinderjit Sivia
Decision Analysis for Managers: A Guide for Making Better Personal and Business Decisions
by David Charlesworth
Decision Analysis for the Professional
by John Celona and Peter McNamee
Decision Quality: Value Creation from Better Business Decisions
by by Carl Spetzler, Hannah Winter, and Jennifer Meyer
Decision Traps: The Ten Barriers to Decision-Making and How to Overcome Them
by Dr. J. Edward Russo and Dr. Paul J. H. Schoemaker
Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan
by John Kruschke
The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It
by Douglas W. Hubbard
The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty
by Sam L. Savage and Jeff Danziger
Foundations of Decision Analysis
by Ronald A. Howard and Ali E. Abbas
Game Theory 101: The Basics
by William Spaniel
Game Theory for Business: A Primer in Strategic Gaming
by Paul Papayoanou
Handbook of Decision Analysis
by Gregory S. Parnell PhD, Terry Bresnick MBA, Steven N. Tani PhD, Eric R. Johnson PhD
How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business
by Douglas W. Hubbard
How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk
by Douglas W. Hubbard and Richard Seiersen
An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision
by Robert W. Winkler
Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis (Business Statistics)
by Robert T. Clemen
Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts
by Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson
Monetizing Your Data
by Andrew Roman Wells and Kathy Williams Chiang
Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
by Michael Lewis
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
by Richard J. Heuer
Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions
by Gerd Gigerenzer
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
by Nate Silver
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
by Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd, ABC Research Group
Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions
by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa
The Smart Organization: Creating Value Through Strategic R&D
by David Matheson, Jim Matheson
Thinking, Fast and Slow
by Daniel Kahneman
Thinking in Systems: A Primer
by Donella H. Meadows
Thinking Strategically: The Competitive Edge in Business, Politics, and Everyday Life (Norton Paperback)
by Avinash K. Dixit, Barry J. Nalebuff
Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
by M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion, Mitchell Small
Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking
by Ralph L. Keeney
Why Can't You Just Give Me The Number? An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions
by Patrick Leach
Why Decisions Fail
by Paul C. Nutt
You Are Not So Smart: Why You Have Too Many Friends on Facebook, Why Your Memory Is Mostly Fiction, an d 46 Other Ways You're Deluding Yourself
by David McRaney
You Are Now Less Dumb: How to Conquer Mob Mentality, How to Buy Happiness, and All the Other Ways to Ou tsmart Yourself
by David McRaney
Ask, Inspire, Solve.: The Science and Practice of Facilitative Questioning
by Katherine RosbackBayesian Methods for Hackers: Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Inference
by Cameron Davidson-PilonBusiness Case Analysis with R: Simulation Tutorials to Support Complex Business Decisions
by Robert D. Brown IIIBusiness Portfolio Management: Valuation, Risk Assessment, and EVA Strategies
by Michael S. AllenCertain to Win: The Strategy of John Boyd, Applied to Business
by Chet RichardsCompetitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors
by Michael E. PorterData Analysis: A Bayesian Tutorial
by Devinderjit SiviaDecision Analysis for Managers: A Guide for Making Better Personal and Business Decisions
by David CharlesworthDecision Analysis for the Professional
by John Celona and Peter McNameeDecision Quality: Value Creation from Better Business Decisions
by by Carl Spetzler, Hannah Winter, and Jennifer MeyerDecision Traps: The Ten Barriers to Decision-Making and How to Overcome Them
by Dr. J. Edward Russo and Dr. Paul J. H. SchoemakerDoing Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan
by John KruschkeThe Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It
by Douglas W. HubbardThe Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty
by Sam L. Savage and Jeff DanzigerFoundations of Decision Analysis
by Ronald A. Howard and Ali E. AbbasGame Theory 101: The Basics
by William SpanielGame Theory for Business: A Primer in Strategic Gaming
by Paul PapayoanouHandbook of Decision Analysis
by Gregory S. Parnell PhD, Terry Bresnick MBA, Steven N. Tani PhD, Eric R. Johnson PhDHow to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business
by Douglas W. HubbardHow to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk
by Douglas W. Hubbard and Richard SeiersenAn Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision
by Robert W. WinklerMaking Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis (Business Statistics)
by Robert T. ClemenMistakes Were Made (but Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts
by Carol Tavris and Elliot AronsonMonetizing Your Data
by Andrew Roman Wells and Kathy Williams ChiangMoneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
by Michael LewisPsychology of Intelligence Analysis
by Richard J. HeuerRisk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions
by Gerd GigerenzerThe Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
by Nate SilverSimple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
by Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd, ABC Research GroupSmart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions
by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard RaiffaThe Smart Organization: Creating Value Through Strategic R&D
by David Matheson, Jim MathesonThinking, Fast and Slow
by Daniel KahnemanThinking in Systems: A Primer
by Donella H. MeadowsThinking Strategically: The Competitive Edge in Business, Politics, and Everyday Life (Norton Paperback)
by Avinash K. Dixit, Barry J. NalebuffUncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
by M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion, Mitchell SmallValue-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking
by Ralph L. KeeneyWhy Can't You Just Give Me The Number? An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions
by Patrick LeachWhy Decisions Fail
by Paul C. NuttYou Are Not So Smart: Why You Have Too Many Friends on Facebook, Why Your Memory Is Mostly Fiction, an d 46 Other Ways You're Deluding Yourself
by David McRaneyYou Are Now Less Dumb: How to Conquer Mob Mentality, How to Buy Happiness, and All the Other Ways to Ou tsmart Yourself
by David McRaney
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