They paid too much attention to the averages, and too little to the uncertainties inherent in them, thereby displaying too much confidence.
Showing posts with label flaw of averages. Show all posts
Showing posts with label flaw of averages. Show all posts
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Economists Are Overconfident. So Are You
HBR blogger, Justin Fox, provides a great explanation in "Economists Are Overconfident. So Are You" for why you need to report insights with graphs, not just numbers or even no numbers at all. Here's the key take-away for you:
Labels:
decision making,
economics,
flaw of averages
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
How a 1979 MG Midget Taught Me to Love Risk Analysis
At the tender age of 17 I sold my soul to a 1979 MG Midget. Or, at least I sold my body into indentured servitude to it. I spent my entire earnings from two prior summer jobs and my part time job after school to acquire this little gem. Fire engine red. Black racing stripes. Mag wheels. And, yes, a sixty-five BHP engine. As cool as that sounds and as anyone who has ever owned a British Leyland product already knows, I spent a lot of time tinkering with the car to keep it running, often at the most inconvenient of times.
Read more here.
Labels:
flaw of averages,
risk analysis
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